Work and things this morning. I decided to wear a tie again today. I might make that a regular things because I really like it. Anyhow, I worked with Lee doing some analysis on last month's data. A lot of the things he and I do involves analyzing data trends. Most of it is through Excel models, but there are times where we have to use our judgment and whatever mathematics we want to involve. Such was the case today. It was actually fun, trying to come up with different ways to figure out what could happen. My opinion didn't hold any weight (thankfully), but someday I will have enough experience (like Jeff and Phil do) to know the sorts of things that need to be looked for and what to do with it. Instead of me just sort of throwing numbers around, trying to make weighted averages, then just taking that and seeing if it made sense. My methods weren't bad, but they weren't very based in reality.
Lee and I did get into some theory today, which was pretty exciting. He was explaining that to obtain a certain amount of confidence of data accuracy, they have to get a certain number of claims. So we discussed the Central Limit Theorem, which was centered around a given Poisson** random variable. Since my classes and exams are based on these theories, it's nice to go back to the basics every once in a while. And it makes me feel like the things I learn in class are actually beneficial beyond passing the exams.
*Basically saying that for a given mean (average) and variance (related to the standard deviation), you need a certain number of trials (claims in this case) to estimate using the Normal Distribution. In other words, if you have enough participants, they will be normally distributed. This is a fantastic thing.
**A Poisson (yes, I know it's French for fish) random variable is one that measures the likelihood of a certain number of things happening in a given time period. For instance, if you can tell me the average number of people who are eating soup between noon and 1pm, I can tell you the probability that any number of people are eating soup between noon and 1pm. So if an average of 10 people are eating soup in that hour, then I know that there is a 3.8% probability that exactly 5 people are eating soup in that hour. It's magic.
After work I came home and had dinner with mom and dad. They made steak and potatoes for dinner and it was really good. I don't typically like steak, but this was fantastic.
Then I went to go hang out with Becky and Miles for a bit. After discussing our days, Becky showed me her new favorite toy: the pasta maker. It's really cool. Basically it makes things super flat. Which is AWESOME! We flattened bread until it was really really thin. Then put peanut butter and jelly on it for extra amazing! We also played a game called...something. It was a card game. And I was really bad at it.
And then fire was made!
I had to go home. They tried to convince me to stay... but I had to leave. I was sad :( But I came home, talked with mom and dad for a bit, then made lunch. Kimmy and I talked about some wedding things... and now I'm going to bed. Night all.
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